Target Holding Chairman Gokalp: "Capital Inflows May Accelerate in the Second Half of the Year"
Dr. Namık Kemal Gökalp, Chairman of Hedef Holding, shared his economic assessments and expectations for 2025. He addressed the impacts of the political transition process following Donald Trump's election victory in the U.S., political uncertainties in Europe, and Turkey's tight monetary policies on global markets.
Gökalp noted that the U.S. economy would remain resilient compared to Europe, and the strong position of the dollar has the potential to exert pressure on emerging markets. However, he emphasized that Turkey could achieve a positive differentiation through the continuation of its tight monetary policies. He stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and U.S.-China relations would be decisive for the economic outlook in 2025.
Assessing the Turkish economy, Gökalp highlighted that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is exhibiting determination in fighting inflation with its tight monetary policy, which could strengthen reserves alongside the theme of real appreciation of the Turkish Lira (TL). He mentioned that Turkey is experiencing a positive differentiation among emerging markets with a real interest rate of 9.3% in an environment where the current policy interest rate is 64.8%.
Gökalp pointed out that capital inflows could accelerate in the second half of the year, suggesting that the Central Bank opening swap channels could boost capital flows and positively affect Turkish assets. He also expressed expectations for a significant momentum in Borsa Istanbul in the second half of the year, driven by recovering balance sheets and foreign investor interest.
Regarding the impacts of interest rate reduction cycles, Gökalp indicated that global central banks would continue their interest rate cuts, potentially leading to inflation stabilization and a slowdown in growth. Specifically for Turkey, a growth expectation of 3% and an inflation rate of 28% are projected for 2025. He noted that interest rate cuts could accelerate the shift of foreign investors, who benefit from high interest rates, towards riskier assets.
According to the 2025 Strategy Report of Info Yatırım, one of Hedef Holding's group companies, the year-end target for the BIST 100 index has been set at 14,500. The report states that upgrades by credit rating agencies, the opening of swap channels, the lifting of the short-selling ban on BIST 50, and expectations for a pullback in CDS will be important catalysts for Borsa Istanbul.
Dr. Namık Kemal Gökalp expressed that Turkey could achieve a positive differentiation in 2025 through tight monetary policy and strong macroeconomic fundamentals. The expected acceleration of capital inflows and potential movements in the stock market in the second half of the year could create significant opportunities for investors. However, geopolitical developments and the impact of global central bank decisions on the markets should be closely monitored.