Macquarie Predicts Surge in U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Investing.com -- Macquarie projected an increase in U.S. crude oil stocks for the week ending January 3, forecasting a rise of 6.5 million barrels (MM BBL). This estimate is lower than the initial expectation of a 7.4 MM BBL increase, contrasting with the reported decline of 1.2 MM BBL for the week ending December 27.

The anticipated change in crude oil balances includes a predicted daily decrease of 0.3 million barrels per day (MBD) in refinery crude oil processing volumes. A modest increase in net imports is expected, driven by a decrease of 0.8 MBD in exports and a smaller decline of 0.6 MBD in imports. The timing of cargo arrivals may lead to potential fluctuations in this week’s crude oil balance. Additionally, year-end timing effects could add more volatility to the weekly statistics.

Macquarie’s analysis also points to a recovery in implied domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, forecasting an increase of 0.6 MBD following a weaker performance in the previous week. An increase of 0.2 MM BBL in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is also anticipated for the week.

In terms of refined products, Macquarie forecasts a significant increase of 6.8 MM BBL in gasoline stocks, a rise of 3.2 MM BBL in distillate stocks, and a slight increase of 0.1 MM BBL in jet fuel. Implied demand for these products is modeled at approximately 13.2 MBD for the week, taking into account ongoing holiday and seasonal effects.