iPhone Shipments in China Plunge 47% Year-on-Year in November

According to the latest data summarized by Jefferies, smartphone shipments in China are expected to decline by 6% year-on-year in November 2024, with a significant drop of 47% in iPhone shipments. Conversely, Android smartphone shipments exhibited an approximately 4% year-on-year increase. The decline in iPhone shipments is estimated to be 17% below the sales rate, while Android shipments performed 33% above the sales rate.

The downward trend in smartphone shipments in China has persisted for three consecutive months. This significant decline in iPhone shipments is attributed to previously high stock levels, which have led to over 40% year-on-year declines each month. Meanwhile, Android shipments displayed positive growth, recording a 27% increase in October and a 4% increase in November. However, industry controls revealed that Android's sales growth was only in low single digits in October, with a slight decline in November.

Over a six-month period, iPhone's stock days increased marginally from 21 days to 23 days. In contrast, Android's estimated stock days rose from 9 days in October to 11 days. The discrepancies between shipment and sales rates for Android, alongside the anticipated sales decline in December, raise concerns about potential stock adjustments for Android in the first quarter of 2025.

In addition to the sector's challenges, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has set a maximum limit of 500₺ for smartphone subsidies in 2025, falling short of market expectations. This policy decision is particularly concerning given the weak Android sales in December, despite state subsidies in five provinces and three cities and increased discounts from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

While government subsidies for smartphones will continue in 2025, there are concerns that the total amount will be significantly less than the previously reported 100 billion ₺ by local media in November.